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macroeconomic policy support and resistance

the pmi data released on august 31 will provide an important reference. it is expected that the pmi data will shrink a lot, and substantial changes still need to be observed. however, the market is still full of expectations. some news, such as "rumored reduction in existing mortgage interest rates", has triggered positive sentiment among some investors. however, from the perspective of banks and real estate, the benefits brought by this policy may be controversial.

the logic behind the new round of rise

xue hongyan, deputy director of xingtu financial research institute, believes that the large-scale market surge on august 30 released a relatively positive signal and also indicated that a new upward trend may begin. his analysis is based on the previous continuous fluctuations of a-shares, the repeated record lows in trading volume, and the positive signals released, suggesting that the market has begun to trade policy expectations.

focus: the rhythm of the global economy and changes in the rmb exchange rate

on the one hand, as the world enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the pressure on the depreciation of the rmb exchange rate is relieved, and rmb assets are expected to usher in capital inflows. in addition, the fed's interest rate cut may trigger a reversal of the yen carry trade, and the us and japanese stock markets may face adjustment pressure. this trend will have an important impact on the rmb market and also provide opportunities for the continued rise of mid-cap stocks.

on the other hand, the us stock market has become more volatile due to geopolitical factors, but thanks to the fed's interest rate cuts and the growth in profits from artificial intelligence-related topics, the us stock market is still expected to have further room for growth. japan is a stock market that i am more optimistic about in the asian market. as the global economic situation changes, it is also an investment direction worthy of attention.

diversify risks and move forward steadily

for investors, risk diversification is crucial. in addition to the chinese stock market, gold is also another choice for investment security, which can diversify investment risks.