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home > industry news > subtle changes in economic rhythm: bond market, equity market and global financial landscape
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however, the current expectations for economic fundamentals have changed only slightly, and the impact of fundamental factors on rebalancing transactions is still weak, and the market is more dependent on capital-driven factors. in the long run, with the economy flat and no total stimulus policy in place, the domestic equity market is expected to show a structural market development trend.
several fund companies have given specific asset allocation recommendations: first, conservative investors can consider combining gold with defensive industries, and then gradually increase the allocation of interest rate-sensitive assets, and wait for the first landing before gradually increasing the allocation of interest rate-sensitive assets; second, aggressive investors can consider gold as a base position while paying attention to active growth areas and cyclical products, especially in the fields of electronics, communications, new quality productivity, national defense and military industry, as well as those growth sectors that are sensitive to u.s. treasury bond interest rates.
at the same time, the bond market and the stock market will also usher in new investment opportunities. guotai fund pointed out that after the federal reserve confirmed the shift, it is highly likely that domestic monetary policy will be loosened, and the 10-year treasury bond will test the integer mark of 2% will become the focus. however, when the 10-year treasury bond breaks below 2.1% and approaches 2%, the pressure of policy regulation will increase objectively. the central bank continues to control the yield rate. after selling long bonds, large banks generally buy short bonds. this will bring short-term adjustments and need to be closely watched.
morgan stanley fund predicts that as the us election becomes clearer and the federal reserve's interest rate cut is implemented, overseas factors will gradually give way to domestic factors, policy expectations will gradually strengthen, and the growth style is expected to continue its advantages in the short term. some growth areas such as tmt, high-end manufacturing, and innovative drugs are worth looking forward to.
in general, the subtle changes in the economic rhythm will bring new opportunities and challenges to the market. the bond market, equity market and global financial landscape will usher in new development trends. investors need to remain patient and respond flexibly to market changes.