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hbm overcapacity has become one of the main challenges facing the current semiconductor industry. despite the continued growth in global chip demand, hbm market supply has clearly exceeded demand. in recent years, the production of hbm transistors has continued to rise, and hbms in 2024 and 2025 have been basically sold out, and order visibility in 2026 or even earlier has been reached, which has put hbm prices under downward pressure.

exane bnp paribas securities' research report pointed out that the hbm market supply and demand structure is about to turn to a recession cycle of "demand contraction, overcapacity, and price decline" after the upward cycle of "demand explosion, shortage and price increase, and investment and expansion". this trend means that although the hbm market supply is sufficient, its price will still be greatly affected, especially in a highly competitive environment.

currently, the hbm market is oversupplied, which has led to increasing downward pressure on hbm transistor prices. as nvidia is a major customer of hbm, fluctuations in its demand will directly affect the development prospects of the hbm industry. as chip demand continues to grow, gpu manufacturers have begun to invest and expand production in the hbm field. however, the long-term test of the supply and demand structure of the hbm market will lead to a drop in hbm prices and have a certain impact on the development of the entire semiconductor industry.

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